A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
